Why it is a question
THEORY-319 now states that, for the exact ratio g* = p(x,z)/(p(x)p(z)), a bounded label and E[g*²] finite, a linear readout of m landmark evaluations comes within O(1/m) of the infer-then-predict function in mean squared error. The source’s error-propagation results for a learned ratio (Theorems 10–11) add terms in (1 + g_max)²√ε_opt and (1 + g_max)⁴ε_opt, where g_max is a uniform bound on the ratio. Many natural joint laws have an unbounded ratio with a finite second moment, the paper’s Gaussian model among them.
What would answer it
A bound on the readout’s excess risk in terms of the excess logistic (or direct) loss and E[g²], with no g_max, would answer it yes. A family of joint laws with E[g²] bounded and learned ratios of vanishing excess loss whose landmark readouts stay far from the infer-then-predict function would answer it no. What cannot settle it: linear-probe accuracies of trained contrastive networks, where neither the ratio nor its excess loss is measured.