Answer

No. Both halves rest on one source: X uniform on four states, Y binary with P(Y=1|x) = (0, 0, 1/8, 3/8). A single counterexample answers a “must” question, and QUESTION-220’s own “what would count” accepts “a small discrete distribution whose optima at two budgets are incomparable partitions”.

  • Deterministic encoders. CLAIM-387 (Active, demonstrated), by enumerating the partitions. The optimum is {0,1,2 | 3} for 6.91 < β < 9.26 and {0,1 | 2,3} for 9.26 < β < 16.06. Neither refines the other, and they are not even laminar, so no fixed tree holds both.
  • Stochastic encoders. CLAIM-392 (Active, demonstrated). The unique optima at β = 8 and β = 12 fail THEORY-753’s hull test, so no Markov chain X → T₂ → T₁ joins them.

The caveat on the second half. CLAIM-392’s certificate of optimality and uniqueness is a fine grid with local search, not interval arithmetic. Its warrant is demonstrated, but a sharper certificate would make it a theorem. If that certificate failed, the stochastic half would reopen here, as ADR-049 provides.

What it leaves to QUESTION-220

When nesting does hold. THEORY-757 gives two special cases, Y a function of X and both binary. QUESTION-220 keeps the structural condition on P(X, Y), how large the loss from forcing nesting can be (0.49% of the budget here), and whether THEORY-163’s annealed colour hierarchy nests.