Definition

Let W₁, W₂, … be successive windows of a negotiation’s history, each with its relation of wins and its class of ordinal potentials (TERM-077). An ordering ≿_v is a persistent potential over the windows when Frijda’s three marks of control precedence (THEORY-055) hold of it:

  • Priority. In each window, on contested pairs where ≿_v and some other perspective’s ordering disagree, the wins follow ≿_v, up to the window’s least reversal fraction.
  • Persistence. ≿_v is in, or within a stated reversal fraction of, each window’s class. A sequence of per-window potentials that are different orderings is not one persistent potential, however coherent each window is (CLAIM-436, part 4).
  • Resumption. After a perturbation moves the system down ≿_v, the one-move-at-a-time dynamics climb it again.

Exact and approximate. The marks admit a tolerance, and the tolerance changes what follows.

  • An exact persistent potential is one that no move outside a perturbation descends. Then ≿_v is a Lyapunov function of the one-move-at-a-time dynamics, non-decreasing along them. That is monotonicity, not return. If a perturbation moves the system to a lower state that is absorbing, no endogenous move descends ≿_v and none climbs it, and the system never resumes. Resumption stays a separate mark, read off the record or derived from further assumptions: reachability of higher states, strict progress away from the top, or stochastic recurrence.
  • An approximate one fits each window only up to a reversal fraction, so some moves descend it. It is then no Lyapunov function. A recurring cycle of moves A → B → C → A has a best-fitting ordering that misfits one move in three, yet no function is non-decreasing along all three moves except a constant (CLAIM-434, part 9). The ordering’s fit does not make the system climb it.
  • What can stand in for the Lyapunov reading in the approximate case is a drift condition: the expected change of the potential along the dynamics is non-negative, or positive away from the top. That needs more than this term supplies. An expectation of changes needs a cardinal potential, differences that mean something, which is the fourth sense of currency, not the first (TERM-077). It also needs a stochastic model of the moves, Markov or stationary over the windows, under which the expectation is taken. Where those are not stated, an approximate persistent potential claims priority and persistence only, and resumption is read off the record as the ordering’s return after perturbations, not inferred from a Lyapunov property.
  • An ordinal surrogate, that moves climb the ordering more often than they descend it, is not a drift condition and does not by itself give return: frequent small climbs and rare long descents can coexist with no tendency to return.

The record of wins is kept per window and in sequence, never netted over the whole history. Netting erases exactly what the term needs: a pair won alternately by each side nets to no conflict (CLAIM-434, part 5). Direction, the number of contests and their variability are three quantities, not one.

What it is not

  • Not “ascendancy”. The review of PR #327 named this level “dynamical ascendancy”. The record had retired “ascendancy” earlier the same day for “potential”, the mathematical word (TERM-076), and this term keeps that choice; “persistent” names what is added.
  • Not an ordinal potential on the pooled record. Pooling the windows can produce an acyclic record from alternating ones, or a cyclic one from windows each acyclic.
  • Not valence. A persistent potential can rank anything. It becomes goal-conduciveness valence (TERM-076) only when it ranks the system’s own states by their bearing on its maintenance, over a non-empty set of contested pairs.
  • Not a Lyapunov function when approximate. See above; the distinction was added before merge after a second review of the pull request.
  • Not stable under simultaneous moves. The Lyapunov reading needs winning moves one at a time; simultaneous moves can cycle even in an exact potential game (CLAIM-434).