Source
Bottke, Vokrouhlický, Dykhuis & Zellner (2026), LIT-009, read in full in NOTE-002 from the arXiv preprint 2606.05036v1. What the model shows is THEORY-499, which this entry extends.
The thesis
The paper’s title asserts the event: “An 800 Myr-old Impact Shower on the Terrestrial Planets from the Breakup of the Eulalia Parent Body”. Its conclusion is that the breakup “can plausibly account for” the ~800 Ma lunar crater cluster, and it links the same shower, as its own speculation, to events on Earth, Mars and Venus.
Why it is not held
The model is an existence argument: only the most favourable of five solutions is carried through, one factor is tuned by eye, and on average its largest lunar impactor is too small for Copernicus. The seven craters are dated by N(1) scaled to Copernicus, the only one with a sample age, so the cluster’s absolute date is Copernicus’s. Whether the shower happened needs the other craters dated, or the projectile identified, as the condition says.