Source
Wang, Solloway, Shiffrin & Busemeyer (2014), LIT-795, whose title states that question-order context effects “reveal quantum nature of human judgments”. The equality is derived in Wang & Busemeyer (2013), LIT-834, Appendix. The paper presents it as an a priori, parameter-free prediction that holds for question-order effects in general.
What is asserted
That for two back-to-back binary questions asked in both orders, the probability of agreeing answers does not depend on the order, as a regularity of survey and judgment data in general and not only of the surveys tested.
What the record holds toward it
THEORY-166, which is Active, holds the measured case: every Pew survey of 2001–2011 that varied the order of two questions shows order effects but no departure from the equality, and 72 studies lie along the predicted line. It also holds the limits: the equality breaks when information is read out between the questions (Rose–Jackson), and a classical model with order events can satisfy it.
What this does not say
- That human judgment is quantum. The equality follows from projector symmetry under one update rule, and a constrained classical model meets it.
- That the data are contextual. Under the equality they are not (LIT-264).
- Anything outside back-to-back binary questions.
What would confirm or reject it
The promote_when. QUESTION-210 asks the same test.