Source
Holling (1973), LIT-741, read in NOTE-572.
What was actually shown
Holling (LIT-741) argues from model behaviour and from case histories.
- Models. Adding realistic features to predator–prey models (lags, nonlinear responses, contagious attack, a reproduction threshold) turns globally stable or unstable behaviour into bounded domains of attraction. Within a domain, trajectories return; outside it, a population goes extinct. Stability describes behaviour near the equilibrium, and persistence depends on the boundary.
- Cases. The spruce budworm forest cycles through outbreaks and is “highly unstable”, and that instability renews the forest and keeps the system going. Forest insects in extreme climates fluctuate widely yet absorb extremes. Great Lakes fisheries were constant and collapsed under exploitation. A lake kept one state for millennia, then flipped after a small hydrological change.
- Definitions. Resilience is the ability “to absorb changes of state variables, driving variables, and parameters, and still persist”. Stability is “the ability of a system to return to an equilibrium state after a temporary disturbance”.
The distinction could have failed if persistence had tracked closeness of return. The budworm and insect cases show it does not.
What this does not say
- Not that instability causes resilience in general. The cases are chosen to show the two can separate, and Holling says his sample “is inevitably biased”.
- Not that maximum-yield management always erodes resilience. That is argued from the framework and supported by examples, not tested.
- Not Aubin’s viability. Resilience is about staying within a domain of attraction of the system’s own dynamics. Viability (THEORY-134) is about staying within a constraint set given apart from the dynamics. A regime can be resilient, hard to dislodge, while violating what it needs.
Connections
- Alternative stable states (THEORY-136) develops the domain of attraction into a test for whether a shift is a move between attractors.
- The owner’s essay. §6.1’s “stability is not viability” has Holling’s distinction as its older and more cited ancestor. Northstar’s emergency regime, suppressing disturbance while eroding maintenance, is the maximum-sustained-yield story in an organization.