The inference
Let R be the escalation and suspension relation. Holding attitudes, information and policy fixed, alter R; if regime transitions change systematically, R helps explain efficacy (Woodward’s interventionism, THEORY-138, though the manuscript does not cite it).
Critical questions
- Is everything said to be held fixed really fixed? Stipulated, since the case is fictional. Answered only by stipulation.
- Does changing R change anything else? Not answered. Changes to authority usually change incentives, and incentives change attitudes.
- Is the case realistic, or only coherent? Not answered in the final text; the first draft conceded it does not show “that real organizations would behave so cleanly”. That concession belongs here.
- Causation or constitution? An intervention shows R makes a difference; it does not by itself show R is part of the will-organization (TERM-023) rather than a cause of it. The manuscript cites Craver (LIT-832) for the distinction and does not apply it to its own test.